Living with Climate Change in ASALs: Integrating Scientific Forecasts with Indigenous Knowledge

Abstract

Climate change has either increased precipitation or induced droughts that recur with shorter interval periods in some regions. Drought events in arid and semiarid lands (ASALs) present threats to both livestock and crops production that impact livelihoods. Droughts expose residents to loss of livelihoods and subsequently, a life of desperation. The communities in Kenyan ASALs have over time devised various traditional weather and climate forecasting techniques to inform response decisions to drought events. However, the prevailing conflict between the use of scientific and traditional forecasts is one barrier to the uptake of weather and climate forecasts. This chapter interrogates the place of scientific and traditional climate forecasts, undertakes analysis of indigenous/traditional techniques used by communities in the Kenyan ASALs in predicting drought events, highlights the weakness of the two, and proposes the best strategy to safeguard the liveli hoods of pastoral communities. The information is from empirical evidence assembled with use of questionnaires, interviews, focus group discussions, and desktop literature review. The study established that the ASALs pastoral com munities heavily rely on indigenous/traditional weather forecasts for decision making in safeguarding livelihoods. The study further established that uptake of scientific seasonal climate forecasts can be enhanced by integrating traditional weather forecasts with scientific climate forecasts.