PROJECTION OF PRIMARY SCHOOLS ENROLMENT AND THE NON-SCHOOLING GAP BY 2030 IN THE ARID AND SEMI-ARID COUNTIES IN RIFT VALLEY REGION, KENYA

Abstract

Enrolment is a very critical variable in the attainment of Kenya Vision 2030. The purpose of this study was to project the primary schools enrolment and the non-schooling gap by 2030 in the Rift Valley Region of Kenya. The study projected enrolment and the nonschooling gap in Turkana, West Pokot and Baringo Counties with the aim of proposing measures and strategies geared towards the realization of the Kenya Vision 2030 and the Sustainable Development Goals. The study was guided by three objectives which were to: project the non-schooling gap by 2030 based on trends in gender mainstreaming; trends in school capacity; and trends in availability of teachers. It was based on Precedence Diagram Model. The study adopted mixed method research design; the study sample was fourteen sub county education officers, fourteen officers in charge of statistics at the sub county education offices and three county statistics officers. The instruments employed in data collection were document analysis and interview schedule. The reliability of the instruments was tested after a pilot study was conducted in Elgeiyo Marakwet County. Validity of the instrument was determined by expert judgment in the School of Education. Data collected was analyzed using descriptive statistics, inferential statistics and was projected using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. The findings of the study revealed that the projected non-schooling gap based on net enrolment will be a deficit in all the counties by 2030. The negative gap for boys in Turkana County by 2030 will be 13,866 and for girls it will be 81,006. In West Pokot County the non-schooling gap for boys was projected to be 57,874 while that of girls is projected at 54,597. In Baringo County, the non-schooling gap for boys is projected to be a deficit of 2,448 while that of girls will be 36,429. Findings also revealed a deficit in school capacity by the target year in the three counties. The projected school age population in Turkana County is 291,446 and the school capacity is projected at 233,518 giving a deficit of 57,928 school spaces. In West Pokot County there is a projected deficit of 12,762 school spaces since the projected population and school capacity by the target year will be 271,531 and 258,769 respectively. In Baringo County however, the school age population is projected at 265,121 while the school capacity is 278,651 giving a surplus of 13,530. It is projected that there will be a shortage in teacher capacity of 157,764 and 55,636 in Turkana and West Pokot Counties respectively. However, there will be a surplus of 50,995 in Baringo County by 2030. The nonschooling gap for both boys and girls seem to persist in the three counties, alongside the shortage of essential educational resources. The study recommends that the government should formulate and implement appropriate policies such as the establishment of a voucher system programme, increasing funding, construction of schools or expansion of the existing ones and deployment of more teachers so as to close the non-schooling gap. The Kenya Vision 2030 and the Sustainable Development Goals three and four will not be achieved in 2030 as envisaged if the non- schooling gap is not bridged.