THE POTENTIAL OF KENYA'S SUSTAINABLE ENERGY TO EXCLUSIVELY MEET ELECTRIC VEHICLES ELECTRICITY DEMAND

Abstract

This study investigates the potential of sustainable energy resources to exclusively satisfy the electrical energy demand of electric vehicles (EVs) in Kenya by examining vehicle growth dynamics, charging infrastructure development, and projected electricity requirements up to 2063 in tandem with Africa’s AGENDA 2063 initiative. Analysis of fleet data shows that internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) remain dominant, expanding from approximately 1.4 million units in 2010 to 4.88 million in 2024, while EVs adoption, which began in 2016, reached 9,019 units by 2024, with motorcycles accounting for nearly 90% of registrations. Although EVs currently represent only 0.02% of the national fleet, their accelerated growth since 2021 is supported by rising fuel prices, supportive policies, heightened environmental awareness, and gradual improvements in charging infrastructure. Projections from the regression analysis of historical data up to 2024 suggest that the number of EVs could reach 8.2 million by 2063. On the other hand, projection using Logistic Growth Model (LGM), which theoretically describes diffusion of an innovation in the society, predicts that the number of EVs by 2063 could reach 5087062, 9246810, 10795415 and 11122187 respectively for conservative (25%), moderate (50%), optimistic (75%) and original (100%) growth scenarios. Thus, the EVs adaption in the country can best be described by the moderate scenario because it closely matches that from regression analysis of historical data with a deviation of 12.8%. The evaluation of charging infrastructure reveals that facilities remain highly uneven and urban-centric, with Nairobi dominating while peripheral regions lag behind; BasiGo, Holy Family Basilica, and Charge Net lead the sector, and Level 2 charging is most common, with limited Level 3 and no Level 1 installations, suggesting a strategic prioritization of mid-tier charging technologies but highlighting the need for regionally inclusive infrastructure. Projected electricity demand from EVs varies between 24.33 TWh and 53.19 TWh by 2063, and when combined with domestic and industrial growth, national requirements could reach between 54.25 TWh and 83.11 TWh, equivalent to 6193 – 9488 MW. Kenya’s renewable energy capacity is projected to grow from 2323 MW in 2024 to 6887 MW by 2063, hence will be insufficient to meet the highest projected demand with a deficit of 2601 MW. Fortunately, the country possesses vast untapped sustainable energy reserves that are technically viable such as micro-hydro, geothermal, wind and solar energy. Therefore, with timely investment, policy intervention, and nationally balanced infrastructure planning, Kenya has the potential to meet future EVs’ electricity demand entirely through sustainable energy resources, thereby supporting a transition towards a clean and low-carbon transport system.